# 足球 跨公司价差 稳定性验证

生成时间：2026-10-02T21:18:19.332Z
有盘口的已结算比赛：1246 场
有效下注：5013 笔 · 至少 3 家公司 · 赔率 1.7-2.8
日期范围：2025-12-08 → 2026-10-02（97 天）

## 全体（按价差阈值）

| 阈值 | 笔数 | 命中率 | 打平线 | ROI | 均价 |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| ≥0% | 1132 | 52.4% | 47% | +10.5% | 2.129 |
| ≥1% | 716 | 55% | 46.6% | +16.5% | 2.148 |
| ≥2% | 525 | 55.6% | 46.2% | +18.4% | 2.164 |
| ≥3% | 410 | 59.7% | 46.2% | +27.8% | 2.166 |
| ≥5% | 302 | 61.2% | 46.1% | +30.8% | 2.17 |

## 按盘口（价差 ≥2%）

| 盘口 | 笔数 | 命中率 | 打平线 | ROI |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| ML | 117 | 60.7% | 44.1% | +36.8% |
| Spread | 130 | 55.4% | 47.4% | +13.3% |
| Totals | 278 | 53.5% | 46.6% | +13.1% |

## Spread（≥2%）逐周稳定性

| 周 | 笔数 | 命中率 | ROI |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| 2025-12-08 | 3 | 100% | +93% |
| 2025-12-15 | 7 | 71.4% | +49% |
| 2025-12-22 | 5 | 50% | +8% |
| 2025-12-29 | 10 | 50% | +1.3% |
| 2026-01-05 | 6 | 66.7% | +34% |
| 2026-01-19 | 17 | 64.3% | +27.8% |
| 2026-01-26 | 3 | 33.3% | -26% |
| 2026-02-02 | 6 | 66.7% | +47.1% |
| 2026-02-09 | 2 | -% | 0% |
| 2026-02-16 | 8 | 42.9% | -13% |
| 2026-02-23 | 16 | 45.5% | -1% |
| 2026-03-02 | 10 | 44.4% | -6.5% |
| 2026-09-14 | 1 | 100% | +70% |
| 2026-09-21 | 11 | 40% | -10% |
| 2026-09-28 | 25 | 57.1% | +16% |

## Totals（≥2%）逐周稳定性

| 周 | 笔数 | 命中率 | ROI |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| 2025-12-08 | 17 | 76.5% | +69.8% |
| 2025-12-15 | 2 | 50% | -3.7% |
| 2025-12-22 | 5 | 80% | +53.5% |
| 2025-12-29 | 17 | 41.2% | -16% |
| 2026-01-05 | 6 | 66.7% | +27.7% |
| 2026-01-12 | 19 | 47.4% | -7.1% |
| 2026-01-19 | 27 | 59.3% | +29.3% |
| 2026-01-26 | 14 | 57.1% | +23.8% |
| 2026-02-02 | 8 | 75% | +64.8% |
| 2026-02-09 | 16 | 37.5% | -23.8% |
| 2026-02-16 | 21 | 52.4% | +7.3% |
| 2026-02-23 | 50 | 50% | +7.8% |
| 2026-03-02 | 44 | 53.7% | +11.7% |
| 2026-09-21 | 19 | 42.1% | -1.8% |
| 2026-09-28 | 13 | 53.8% | +12.2% |

## ML（≥2%）逐周稳定性

| 周 | 笔数 | 命中率 | ROI |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| 2025-12-08 | 7 | 14.3% | -62.9% |
| 2025-12-15 | 9 | 66.7% | +53.8% |
| 2025-12-29 | 6 | 66.7% | +60.8% |
| 2026-01-05 | 5 | 60% | +56.6% |
| 2026-01-12 | 1 | 100% | +98% |
| 2026-01-19 | 3 | 100% | +113.7% |
| 2026-01-26 | 13 | 76.9% | +84.3% |
| 2026-02-09 | 2 | 50% | +27.5% |
| 2026-02-16 | 2 | 0% | -100% |
| 2026-02-23 | 35 | 60% | +31.9% |
| 2026-03-02 | 18 | 55.6% | +14.8% |
| 2026-09-21 | 5 | 80% | +83.3% |
| 2026-09-28 | 11 | 63.6% | +38.2% |

> 样本不足时结论不可靠；只有逐周都保持正 ROI，才说明优势稳定。