# 篮球盘口模型回测 v1.2.0

回测区间：2026-08-25 至 2026-09-23
生成时间：2026年9月24日星期四 04:53:31

> 回测只使用比赛发生前可获得的球队数据，并使用历史场次的收盘让分和总分。由于当前伤停接口无法还原历史时点，回测不纳入临场伤停调整，以避免未来信息泄漏。

## 总命中率

- 投注方向：35
- 命中：18
- 未中：17
- 走水：0
- 排除走水后的命中率：51.4%

| 日期 | 比赛 | 推荐方向 | 等级 | 最终比分 | 结果 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | WNBA GS @ MIN | 大分 161.5 | A | 80-66 | LOSS |
| 2026-08-26 | WNBA CHI @ CON | Connecticut Sun +7.5 | A | 81-87 | WIN |
| 2026-08-26 | WNBA WSH @ PHX | 大分 168.5 | C | 94-84 | WIN |
| 2026-08-27 | WNBA GS @ CON | 大分 152.5 | A | 89-64 | WIN |
| 2026-08-27 | WNBA TOR @ SEA | Toronto Tempo +6.5 | A | 78-90 | LOSS |
| 2026-08-28 | WNBA GS @ NY | 大分 162.5 | A | 79-60 | LOSS |
| 2026-08-28 | WNBA WSH @ PHX | 大分 164.5 | A | 80-73 | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | WNBA TOR @ LV | Toronto Tempo +16.5 | B | 73-93 | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | WNBA WSH @ LA | Los Angeles Sparks +5.5 | A | 82-88 | WIN |
| 2026-08-30 | WNBA CHI @ NY | 小分 181.5 | B | 66-85 | WIN |
| 2026-08-30 | WNBA TOR @ PHX | 大分 171.5 | A | 69-101 | LOSS |
| 2026-08-31 | WNBA MIN @ ATL | Atlanta Dream +2.5 | C | 81-89 | WIN |
| 2026-08-31 | WNBA LA @ SEA | Seattle Storm +1.5 | A | 90-74 | LOSS |
| 2026-08-31 | WNBA GS @ POR | 大分 159.5 | A | 86-69 | LOSS |
| 2026-08-31 | WNBA CON @ DAL | 大分 166.5 | C | 71-97 | WIN |
| 2026-09-18 | WNBA CON @ ATL | Atlanta Dream -17.5 | C | 59-103 | WIN |
| 2026-09-18 | WNBA WSH @ CHI | 大分 165.5 | A | 110-80 | WIN |
| 2026-09-18 | WNBA LA @ DAL | 小分 177.5 | C | 77-97 | WIN |
| 2026-09-18 | WNBA PHX @ POR | Portland Fire +3.5 | A | 94-91 | WIN |
| 2026-09-18 | WNBA LV @ SEA | Seattle Storm +10.5 | A | 114-77 | LOSS |
| 2026-09-19 | WNBA IND @ TOR | 小分 187.5 | C | 103-85 | LOSS |
| 2026-09-19 | WNBA NY @ MIN | New York Liberty +5.5 | C | 93-81 | WIN |
| 2026-09-19 | WNBA POR @ GS | 大分 159.5 | A | 66-82 | LOSS |
| 2026-09-20 | WNBA CHI @ ATL | 小分 177.5 | C | 81-106 | LOSS |
| 2026-09-20 | WNBA SEA @ GS | 大分 156.5 | A | 57-70 | LOSS |
| 2026-09-21 | WNBA MIN @ CON | Connecticut Sun +18.5 | A | 101-89 | WIN |
| 2026-09-21 | WNBA NY @ TOR | Toronto Tempo +15.5 | A | 106-69 | LOSS |
| 2026-09-21 | WNBA POR @ LA | 小分 178.5 | A | 84-105 | LOSS |
| 2026-09-21 | WNBA SEA @ LV | 小分 177.5 | B | 77-98 | WIN |
| 2026-09-22 | WNBA DAL @ PHX | 小分 174.5 | B | 86-87 | WIN |
| 2026-09-23 | WNBA CON @ WSH | 大分 161.5 | A | 69-79 | LOSS |
| 2026-09-23 | WNBA MIN @ IND | 小分 185.5 | C | 77-96 | WIN |
| 2026-09-23 | WNBA TOR @ CHI | 小分 180.5 | B | 85-97 | LOSS |
| 2026-09-23 | WNBA LA @ LV | Los Angeles Sparks +17.5 | A | 79-89 | WIN |
| 2026-09-23 | WNBA GS @ POR | 大分 158.5 | A | 82-90 | WIN |

## 分级命中率

| 等级 | 命中 | 未中 | 走水 | 排除走水命中率 |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| A | 8 | 13 | 0 | 38.1% |
| B | 3 | 2 | 0 | 60% |
| C | 7 | 2 | 0 | 77.8% |

## 分类命中率

| 市场 | 命中 | 未中 | 走水 | 排除走水命中率 |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 让分 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 61.5% |
| 总分 | 10 | 12 | 0 | 45.5% |

## 注意事项

- 样本量过小时，命中率很容易被短期波动影响。
- 回测不含历史临场伤停和首发变化，与实盘模型会有差异。
- 只有长期记录下注赔率、收盘赔率和实际结果，才能判断模型是否具有真实优势。